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Should Arsenal drop Mesut Ozil at Bayern Munich? What the stats say about Arsene Wenger's dilemma
Arsene Wenger hinted at the weekend that he is seriously considering dropping Mesut Ozil against Bayern Munich after watching the German struggle during Saturday's 2-0 win against Hull City.
“I felt he was not completely confident technically,” Wenger said. “That’s a problem because you think he can deliver something special.
"It’s true that technically he did things [against Hull] that he is not used to doing. I don’t know. It can happen. I can’t think of a specific reason.”
"Yes, maybe it's time for him to score a goal again. He needs to find confidence again. He misses chances that don't look unfeasible for him.”
If Wenger is to make a monumental call by dropping his record £42.5m signing for the biggest game of Arsenal's season so far, there are a couple of major questions he must answer.
Is Ozil really that out of form?
Wenger's admission that Ozil is struggling currently, is borne out by the numbers. Since the turn of the year the German has managed just one assist and no goals in five matches. In total he has gone eight matches without scoring.
Between August and December Ozil recorded nine goals and six assists at a rate of 0.69 goals or assists per 90 minutes, whereas that number has plummeted to 0.21 per game in 2017.
A closer look at the stats suggests though that the decline in Ozil's assist tally - so often his calling card - may not be entirely his fault.
Ozil is actually creating more chances in 2017 than he did between August and December at a rate of 3.3 per game, up from 2.7. It's possible then that Ozil's decline in productivity is partly down to his team-mates' profligacy.
On the goalscoring front, Wenger looks to be correct when citing Ozil's dip in confidence and alluding to the German "missing chances that don't look unfeasible for him."
Ozil's average number of shots per game has barely declined this year (1.44 from 1.66) and his average number of shots on target is almost identical (0.62 per game down from 0.65) but he has not scored since a header against Stoke on Dec 10, suggesting his early season conviction in front of goal has temporarily evaporated.
Who would replace him?
We've established that there has been a fairly steep downturn in Ozil's assists and goals output since the turn of the year, but does Wenger have a viable replacement?
Assuming the manager opts to play two of Francis Coquelin, Granit Xhaka and Mohamed Elneny in central midfield away at Bayern, that leaves seven attackers competing for three forward positions (because Alexis Sanchez is a guaranteed starter in one of the four slots).
The competition for the three final places is between Ozil, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (who could also start in central midfield), Alex Iwobi, Theo Walcott, Lucas Perez, Danny Welbeck and Olivier Giroud.
Taking goals and assists as the two key metrics for these positions and using the start of 2017 as our barometer of form, Ozil's 0.21 goals and assists per 90 minutes compares unfavourably with all but one of his six rivals.
As the graph above shows, everyone but Oxlade-Chamberlain (0.17) has been more productive this year than Ozil.
However those stats are slightly skewed by the 5-0 FA Cup win against a reserve Southampton side, which significantly boosted the numbers of Walcott and Welbeck. That match should not be disregarded but it is highly unlikely that Wenger will base his team selection on a thrashing of a second-string team in the FA Cup.
Ozil also continues to far outstrip his rivals in chances created. Oxlade-Chamberlain is his closest competitor, with 2.4 per 90 minutes in 2017.
If Wenger wants a team set up to run at the Bayern defence on Wednesday then Ozil is not the ideal player. In the dribbles completed section, Ozil is unsurprisingly lagging behind most of his rivals (apart from Giroud and Lucas), with Welbeck way out in front with 5.5 per 90 minutes so far this year.
Conclusion
If going by the numbers there is a compelling case for Ozil to be dropped against Bayern Munich, with Welbeck and Giroud possible alternatives.
But the former is still recovering from a long-term injury and starting Giroud requires a complete change in the way Arsenal play, which Wenger has opted against in the most recent couple of matches.
Walcott must also be a candidate to be dropped given that he hasn't scored or assisted in his previous three matches and looked out of sorts against Hull - though his pace is instrumental to stretching defences and allowing Sanchez to operate effectively as a centre-forward.
Iwobi's form has been equally patchy, and Oxlade-Chamberlain, though impressive against Hull and Southampton, struggled at Chelsea (an opposition of more similar standard to Bayern) and has chipped in with even fewer assists and goals than Ozil in recent weeks.
This is the crux of the dilemma for Wenger. Despite Ozil's lapse in form, Arsenal have not had too many players putting in consistent Premier League performances that demand their inclusion.
Critics also point to Ozil's supposed poor displays in big matches, but he scored against Chelsea earlier this season and against Wednesday's opponents Bayern in the last campaign. Plus, Arsenal's travails in the big matches are by no means exclusive to Ozil - there aren't many attackers in the squad, Sanchez included, who have regularly performed against the strongest opposition.
Were Wenger to drop Ozil against Bayern it would rank as one of his biggest gambles as Arsenal manager, and if it is Iwobi or Oxlade-Chamberlain in the No 10 role they would have to produce something special to vindicate the decision.