Arsene Wenger will be missed by Arsenal but memories are no reason to keep him as manager

• e-mail

There are many reasons to keep faith in a football manager: for fear of finding something worse is not among them. That it remains the strongest case for extending the tenure of Arsene Wenger shows how far Arsenal have fallen.

The qualities of his team do not form a substantive case. It is more the thought of the unknown, life beyond Wenger, that continues to unnerve. What if it got worse?

This is, after all, a squad that Wenger built and may not respond to changes in strategy and method. The restructuring process could be expensive and long. 

At Arsenal, fear of finding someone worse is the strongest case for keeping Arsene Wenger

How much worse can it get than a second 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich in under two years?

Look at Manchester United after Sir Alex Ferguson. What if Arsenal's future echoed that? What if the chance to be annihilated in the first knockout round of the Champions League became a fond memory? What if, like United, hundreds of millions were spent with still no guarantee of success?

The sad truth is, it no longer matters. Arsenal cannot keep feeding this relative mediocrity on the basis of conjecture. If it's worse, it's worse. But how much worse can it be? 

How much worse than a second 5-1 defeat in Munich in under two years? How much worse than a seventh consecutive exit in the Champions League last 16? How much worse than a performance that was the summation of every criticism aimed at Wenger and Arsenal for close to a decade now?

'And always keep a-hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse,' wrote Hilaire Belloc in his cautionary poem, Jim (who ran away from his Nurse and was eaten by a lion). 

A team as flawed as Arsenal cannot resist the squeeze of elite competition indefinitely

Bayern Munich's Twitter account mocked Arsenal suggesting 'Same next year?'

Wenger, of course, is Nurse in this metaphor. Arsenal's owners cling to him, lest they make a change and fail to receive the financial security of a top-four finish. Yet, increasingly, that day of ultimate calamity draws closer.

If Wenger stays, this narrative has a natural end, whether this season or in the future, and it is not in the triumph of vindication. A team as flawed as Arsenal cannot resist the squeeze of elite competition indefinitely.

Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool are 14 points better off than they were after 25 games last season, Manchester United seven, Manchester City five, Chelsea 30. Arsenal two. Significant strides are being taken around them with better to come.

Arsenal shuffle but largely stand still. If there is no guarantee a new man will take them forward, there is no concrete evidence to the contrary.

It is increasingly pointless to issue caveats that the club are still on course to qualify for Europe, or in the FA Cup. That would be stagnation, not progress. Arsenal have won the FA Cup twice recently — they have qualified for the Champions League every season since 1998-99. But they do no more than this. 

Arsenal cannot cling to simply reaching the Champions League last 16 and FA Cup success

They are not significantly contending for the title, they do not threaten the Champions League elite. Bayern sent out a mocking tweet at the end of Wednesday's game, anticipating a rematch next season and a third 5-1 thrashing. 

They would not do that if they really respected Arsenal. To be so cocky at the midway point of a tie shows contempt. Munich are not wary of poking this animal with a stick. They do not fear its claws or bite.

If Arsenal are waiting for the moment Wenger can stand down with grand dignity that probably isn't going to happen, either. Ferguson's departure was exceptional. A final title win with a squad many thought inadequate afforded the perfect end.

Few get that. Brian Clough was relegated at Nottingham Forest; Howard Kendall avoided that fate in his third spell at Everton only on the last day of the season; Newcastle sacked Sir Bobby Robson before August was out.

If Wenger could lift the FA Cup a seventh time it would be a fitting end, but that is far from a certain wager. There is even trepidation externally about Monday's fifth-round visit to Sutton. The Munich defeat has rocked the confidence regarding even the most straightforward tasks. 

If Wenger could lift the FA Cup for a seventh time it would be a fitting end, but is not certain

It is a myth that Wenger's critics have been waiting for this moment, that there is any relish in watching what is surely the endgame unfold. 

All who love football know what Wenger was, what he is and what he will always be. He built the modern Arsenal, he transformed the modern English game. He set one standard of excellence — the unbeaten, Invincible season — that may last centuries. And he never faltered in his belief that football was a thing of beauty and tried to win demonstrating that.

His teams, at their best, played some of the greatest football this country has seen and he introduced us to players that otherwise would never have entered our orbit: Patrick Vieira, Thierry Henry, Kanu, Emmanuel Adebayor. None of these achievements can be taken away and none are tainted by the recent torpor.

It is wrong to say Wenger is destroying his legacy. If he goes — maybe when, after Wednesday — the failures will be quickly forgotten beyond a spiteful few and his contribution will be acknowledged and celebrated. Even at this low ebb, many would still have him installed as England manager by the weekend. Few football figures command such universal admiration.

Yet there comes a time when even the greatest singers no longer hit the right notes. Wenger is 67. The game he helped create is increasingly the preserve of younger coaches who have refined his ideas, or developed them with greater resources.  

Wenger's teams, at their best, played some of the greatest football this country has seen

In Munich, Wenger seemed stuck in the past: trying to beat one of Europe's greatest teams with a featherweight midfield — including a defensive screen who appeared to be the last on the planet to know that it is ill-advised to let Arjen Robben cut in on his left foot.

There will be longer-term ramifications. The body language of Alexis Sanchez suggested he will look for a new club. With a year left on his contract, Arsenal may not get the expected value in the sale, either.

It is all indicative of a club on the drift, a club without leadership — it does not help that Wenger seems to see long-term injury as one of the pre-requisites of a captain — a club that, as former Bayern great Oliver Kahn said, appears passive and does not respond to its manager.

Even at 4-1 and 5-1 up, Munich defender Mats Hummels was still urging his team forward. By contrast, Arsenal had nobody capable of inspiring resilience as the score mounted. Nobody who could stop three going to four, to five and out.

Wenger, more than anyone, will know what he has lost. And Arsenal know what they are losing, too. Their greatest manager, one of the greatest coaches this country has ever seen. Of course there will be days when he is missed. His football, his ambition to win beautifully. But those memories cannot be a reason to stay beyond this season.

For fear of finding something worse? It can't get much worse and, with the right call and investment, it may even get better.

The end of Wenger's tenure will not allow memories of his achievements to be forgotten